Sunday, September 16, 2007

Walsh's New Trouble

The PS gives a summation of Walsh recent move, here's the part that has to scare Walsh most:

"I wasn't shocked or stunned by his remarks," said Olmsted. "It's kind of what I expected from him. He looks at his position in Washington as a career path. He's not serving in a capacity as our congressional representative. He's serving as a career. Most of the people I spoke with feel the same way. It's a very sad event."

Olmsted said the party committee has agreed to meet with Walsh in November to discuss its concerns. After that, party leadership will decide whether to continue supporting Walsh.

"We have a number of options," Olmsted said. "One would be to try to mold his behavior. The other would be to come up with a contingency plan for another candidate. At this point he's giving us less and less reason to look favorably upon him for the endorsement of our party."

The article goes on with a Political Science professor saying Walsh has more to gain. Overall its a tough call, Walsh has bought off the Independence Party by putting their Chair on the campaign payroll, but having a third candidate on the Conservative line could mean big trouble for Walsh, especially if that same candidate ran in a Republican primary. Just having a Conservative on the ballot is going to cost Walsh 1.5 - 2%, a devisive Republican primary could drive that up and make the line a haven for unhappy Republicans. It would also give Dan Maffei an opening to force a write in campaign for the Independence line, write-in campaigns are never easy, but it would force Walsh to divert resources to defend it.

The advantage for Walsh is the influx of new voters that a presidential election bring, there could be as many as 100,000 voters on election day 08, than in 06. Walsh having made his move early and with such fanfare, he may be able to shake the stink of the war with them. Another thing Walsh he has going for him, is a big part of the reason Dan Maffei lost. The Maffei campaign never successfully turned Syracuse Walsh into Washington Walsh. They launched into a direct assault on the War and Bush, but ultimately Walsh was able to fall back just enough on still being tied to the area. Had the Maffei camp maded a first step to wedge Washington between Walsh and Syracuse, the second step would have devestated Walsh, and probably given Dan a comfortable win. But back to the original point, since that move was never made, Walsh's turn on the war may be able to win back a chunk of voters he lost in 06 just on the War.


At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good analysis, Watcher. Here are a couple of comments from my perspective as an Onondoga County voter:
1) The Maffei campaign did not seem to have the financial resources to a) drive a wedge between Syracuse Walsh and Washington Walsh and b) prove that Dan Maffei is actually a Syracusan
2) This time around, they should have those resources.


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