Monday, November 27, 2006

Who's Next - Republicans

If Jim Walsh retires, the list of Republicans will be long, but based on three variables, 1) Does Nick Pirro retire, 2) Do any have the cohones to challenge Dave Valesky and 3) Will anyone make a serious run at Al Stirpe.

  • Nick Pirro - If he runs for re-election or not, his presence would certainly loom large over the race. He is getting up there in age and his health isn't great, I doubt he runs. Even if he does, I don't believe his support is as strong as people think. When Bragman looked at running against him, the polling showed a dead heat.
  • John DeFrancisco - I certainly wouldn't put any money on it, I just don't think he's the type. On the other hand he has half a mil in his Senate account and after Walsh and Pirro he is the best known Republican in the County. He is very conservative on social issues, but has a good relationship with labor. As long as the Republicans hold the Senate majority, I can't imagine him moving.
  • Ann Ciarpelli - Despite being the County Clerk, she has a pretty low profile. I heard her interests lie with the County Executive's office though.
  • Bill Fitzpatrick - Thus far in the list, I believe him the most likely to run. DC politicos love DA's so he would likely be on top of the NRCC's list, but he's no Mike Arcuri. He's been fairly high profile as DA, so he would start with a good base. On the other hand, he's been DA for 15 years now, which would give opposition researchers a lot of material to dig through to put it mildly.
  • Kevin Walsh - Not another Walsh! But not likely.
  • Will Barclay - Doesn't live in the district and waiting on a Senate seat. More likely a candidate for McHugh's seat than Walsh's.
  • Jeff Brown - Jim Walsh's seat has always been the apple of Jeff Brown's eye, he had just been bidding time by seeking other offices. Dave Valesky smacked that down, but Jeff Brown has nothing to do these days. Another run at Valesky doesn't seem likely considering how soundly he was beated and it isn't much of a platform to run for Congress, I would bet on a run for his old Assembly seat.
  • Nancy Lorriane Hoffman - Would it really be any less quixotic than her brief run for Lt. Gov?
  • Tom Dadey - I heard that his real goal was always to be Congressman and he does still need a job that Joe Bruno can't force him out of.
  • Tim Green - Certainly brings some celebrity to the race, but if you think Jim Walsh came off as arrogant this last election, you ain't seen nothin yet. In likelihood to get into the race, I would put him up there with Fitzpatrick. I would put him closer to a house of cards than the House of Representatives though.
  • Joanie Mahoney - Why can't all candidates have rhyming names? I don't think she's tough enough for a real race, she looked positively D-list numerous times against Driscoll. Whether or not that effects her decision to run is a different story.
  • Bill Meyer - Between losing a primary to Jeff Brown and losing a general to Al Stirpe Meyer has pissed away about $100K of his own money. Would that discourage him, or does he enjoy throwing money away? Either way he is the single worst campaigner alive.
  • Chucky Iavarone - Haha, just kidding.
  • Marc Rupprecht - A few weeks ago I would have said he's definately in, but he resigned as Supervisor of Clay, so I guess he is out of politics.
  • Chet Dudzinski - He's my sleeper pick, I think he might shape out as one of the strongest candidates on this list, however I think runs for the 121st AD or 49th SD are more likely.
  • Roy Bernardi - You never know...

11 Comments:

At 8:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You have a list here that Maffei could beat hands down. The only one who gives Maffei a race is Pirro. If Jeff Brown runs for 121st I would get sick (haven't we had enough). Tim green will run for the Senate and Defran may go after county Ex. Don't rule out Brown hinting at they Ex seat. Really who knows? By July we should have a good idea. It is unreal how fast a two year cycle goes. Time will tell.

 
At 11:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nick Pirro is well respected, but he is too old. Same for Roy Bernardi. What about Otis Jennings? Is he harboring any ambitions? I was always worried that he would run for mayor. I remember him as being very charasmatic (for a Republican) but have not been aware of what he has been up to lately.

As for Tom Dadey, hah! Thank you Mr. Dadey for helping us replace that turncoat Nancy Larraine with Dave Valesky. I could have kissed you for that!

Joanie ran a good campaign against the mayor, but then she moved out of the city the minute she lost. It was tantamount to admitting that she didn't really care about the city at all, except as it suited her ambitions.

Bill Meyer - did he even bother to campaign against Stirpe? Stirpe ran circles around him.

John D. is beloved by enemies of the mall (myself included!), but he has John McCain syndrome - Republicans don't trust him, and when push comes to shove, even Dems who appreciate his standing up to Congel, and appreciate his patronage of the arts, etc., are not going to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress. As a senior member of the majority party in the State Senate he's got a sure thing good gig where he is - why ruin it on spec to run for Congress?

 
At 11:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Walsh is done after this round. Stick a fork in him. He hated every second of this race, and he resented having to campaign at all.

After this term he has his 20 years, he has his full retirement package. Does he even seem like he likes his job? If he did, he would not have been coasting for the past decade on some infant hearing screening legislation.

If you were in Congress wouldn't you want to make a little more of an impact, show more initiative, more leadership, more, well, interest in the job? I think he is done.

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Otis Jennings ran for Council President and was pretty handily beaten by Bea Gonzales.

 
At 11:02 AM, Anonymous Mal said...

OK, you want a real long shot? I have no idea if he is 25 yet (the age needed to run for the House) but I suspect he is: Ben Walsh, Jimbo's son. From what I understand, he was VERY involved in his father’s re-election campaign, sitting in on all top strategy and polling meetings. He was one of a very few who told his father early on that this was going to be a tough race for him (advice Jim refused to accept until about the last month...hence, the "little hole" in his heart). I am not even sure if Ben is a Republican (I might even bet he is not), but he could take over his father's machine that is already set up and God knows he has name recognition. He has also worked here in the community since getting his MPA at Maxwell. Not the most outrageous concept.

 
At 12:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A Walsh won't win..... Jim,Ben,Kevin or any other. This past election sealed the walsh fate. Jim Walsh wouldn't win against Maffei in 08. The party needs to bring up new blood and run with it. Plus anyone who sat in on any high level meetings for Walsh should re-think their political tenure. Jim Walsh got bad advise from his advisers, pollster,family and who knows what others. Jim needs to thank the Dtrip and Rtrip. Dtrip for ignoring maffei for nearly a year and the rtrip for stepping in a month before the election and bailing Jim Walsh out. Let Jim finish out his 20 and a big C,YA for 08.

 
At 2:47 PM, Anonymous eastsyr said...

The rumor I heard was that DeFrancisco didn't want Brown to run for Assembly in the first place, but people like Hank Chapman in Manlius stood up and won out. Chapman worked for DeFrancisco and they were friends until the Brown thing. They made nice for the Senate campaign against Valesky in an attempt to get around the disaster that happened with Hoffman, but I bet DeFrancisco will use this as an excuse to sweep Brown under the carpet. Brown might run for the Assembly, but I bet they'll find a different horse instead.

 
At 10:07 PM, Blogger The Watcher said...

Mal,

I pulled up an old voter database of mine from 04. There was only one Ben Walsh registered in the County. 27 years old and a registered blank.

As for Walsh's advisors giving him bad advice, not that I'd ever let Stonecash, Cookfair or Gage with 10 miles of any campaign that I was on, but based on Walsh's attitude throughout the campaign, had they been giving him the right advice, I doubt he would have taken it.

 
At 1:10 PM, Blogger unionmark said...

The one thing about the GOP is that they do have a bench.

The one name that everyone has forgotten is Peter Cappucilli. Peter worked for Congressman Gary Lee (remember him? Syracuse's Sherry Boehlert who lost the GOP Primary to George Wortley) and from what I am hearing, won't be the next County Executive because Sweetland will have it locked up (that's a longer post).

I have heard that he would love to go to Congress. He is loved in the community (State Fair Director is the best job - you play Santa Claus in the summer!), has lots of family ties (his wife's brother is Judge Tony Paris) and would be a hell of a campaigner.

He also is not too conservative - and would be respected by many people. He would be by far the toughest candidate.

 
At 2:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why hasn't Walsh sued you yet with all the dirt you said about him?

 
At 2:48 PM, Anonymous Mal said...

a) the watcher has yet to say anything slandererous about Walsh. I realize this is hard for Republicans to get their minds around, but dissent is not slander, libel or unpatriotic. b) as much as Walsh (and I guess you) hate the democratic process, there is NOTHING wrong with casting a public eye on an elected representative or encouraging opposition. Calling what is said here "dirt" is up there with Walsh crying foul during the election when an ad was run criticizing his record. Get over it. This is democracy.

 

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