Who's Next - Republicans
If Jim Walsh retires, the list of Republicans will be long, but based on three variables, 1) Does Nick Pirro retire, 2) Do any have the cohones to challenge Dave Valesky and 3) Will anyone make a serious run at Al Stirpe.
- Nick Pirro - If he runs for re-election or not, his presence would certainly loom large over the race. He is getting up there in age and his health isn't great, I doubt he runs. Even if he does, I don't believe his support is as strong as people think. When Bragman looked at running against him, the polling showed a dead heat.
- John DeFrancisco - I certainly wouldn't put any money on it, I just don't think he's the type. On the other hand he has half a mil in his Senate account and after Walsh and Pirro he is the best known Republican in the County. He is very conservative on social issues, but has a good relationship with labor. As long as the Republicans hold the Senate majority, I can't imagine him moving.
- Ann Ciarpelli - Despite being the County Clerk, she has a pretty low profile. I heard her interests lie with the County Executive's office though.
- Bill Fitzpatrick - Thus far in the list, I believe him the most likely to run. DC politicos love DA's so he would likely be on top of the NRCC's list, but he's no Mike Arcuri. He's been fairly high profile as DA, so he would start with a good base. On the other hand, he's been DA for 15 years now, which would give opposition researchers a lot of material to dig through to put it mildly.
- Kevin Walsh - Not another Walsh! But not likely.
- Will Barclay - Doesn't live in the district and waiting on a Senate seat. More likely a candidate for McHugh's seat than Walsh's.
- Jeff Brown - Jim Walsh's seat has always been the apple of Jeff Brown's eye, he had just been bidding time by seeking other offices. Dave Valesky smacked that down, but Jeff Brown has nothing to do these days. Another run at Valesky doesn't seem likely considering how soundly he was beated and it isn't much of a platform to run for Congress, I would bet on a run for his old Assembly seat.
- Nancy Lorriane Hoffman - Would it really be any less quixotic than her brief run for Lt. Gov?
- Tom Dadey - I heard that his real goal was always to be Congressman and he does still need a job that Joe Bruno can't force him out of.
- Tim Green - Certainly brings some celebrity to the race, but if you think Jim Walsh came off as arrogant this last election, you ain't seen nothin yet. In likelihood to get into the race, I would put him up there with Fitzpatrick. I would put him closer to a house of cards than the House of Representatives though.
- Joanie Mahoney - Why can't all candidates have rhyming names? I don't think she's tough enough for a real race, she looked positively D-list numerous times against Driscoll. Whether or not that effects her decision to run is a different story.
- Bill Meyer - Between losing a primary to Jeff Brown and losing a general to Al Stirpe Meyer has pissed away about $100K of his own money. Would that discourage him, or does he enjoy throwing money away? Either way he is the single worst campaigner alive.
- Chucky Iavarone - Haha, just kidding.
- Marc Rupprecht - A few weeks ago I would have said he's definately in, but he resigned as Supervisor of Clay, so I guess he is out of politics.
- Chet Dudzinski - He's my sleeper pick, I think he might shape out as one of the strongest candidates on this list, however I think runs for the 121st AD or 49th SD are more likely.
- Roy Bernardi - You never know...