Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Polling

Okay, so we now know who was trying to get the Zogby poll pulled, it was Walsh with his pre-emptive strike. Of course, Mr. Walsh and Mr. Gage decided to open pandora's box by criticizing Zogby's methodology.

In releasing their own poll, which is interesting seeing Gage said this only a few weeks ago:

It is the campaign's policy, however, not to release their internal polls.


So let's look at their methodology, the used a list of registered voters with a history of voting. I pulled up an old Onondaga County voter database, right off the bat 40% of the people had no phone number listed for them. On top of that, about 5% of the voters will end up being first time voters, plus another 5% are likely numbers that are no good. So right of the bat 50% of the people who will show up on election day were excluded from this poll.

That poses a big problem, because the poll is now, not as they claim, a random sample. Here is the definition of a random sample:

Simple random sampling is the basic sampling technique where we select a group of subjects (a sample) for study from a larger group (a population). Each individual is chosen entirely by chance and each member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample. Every possible sample of a given size has the same chance of selection.


Which would make Whiney Walsh's poll unscientific and not a reliable poll at all, but I guess that's what you get when you hire Jeff Stonecash.

3 Comments:

At 10:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Having worked phone banks in the past, I can tell you that well more than 5% of the numbers are no good. The rolls you get from the Board of elections include people who moved away a decade ago. When I phone banked I got a near constant stream of "no longer in service" or "this number has been changed..." or "he died three years ago..."

 
At 11:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

DRISCOLL'S STAFF BLASTS CHOICE OF ZOGBY
AIDE CALLS POLLSTER A "REPUBLICAN OPERATIVE." ZOGBY IS A DEMOCRAT.

Hmmm, sounds like someone needs to work on his story.

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Walsh's plan for promoting local business: Take an internationally recognized local company and trash their good name in the press for personal gain. I don't know what that poll was going to show, but could it possibly justify smearing a very well respected local business just to keep that poll out of the news? Nice work Jim! Now we all think that poll showed you were down big, and you have trashed a successful upstate business to boot.

 

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