Thursday, October 19, 2006

Maffei Leads Walsh by 8!

Bumped - The Watcher

A new Independent poll is showing Dan Maffei leading Jim Walsh 51-43!!

Dan leads Independents by 17 points and in Onondaga County by 12 points. Bush's job approval is just 29%.

The same firm also shows the Democrats knocking off Randy Kuhl, Tom Reynolds, John Sweeney, Sue Kelly and winning Sherry Boehlert's open seat. Might be ambitious but it is from an independent source, maybe it's time for the Sub-Standard to run a poll.


At 7:17 PM, Anonymous kml said...

I dont know about this poll, reputation wise, but if this is damn! It would certainly explain the lack of numbers coming out of Walsh's camp. He's embarrassed. :D

A note of caution though. We are still 3 weeks out. We can't give up, we can't slack off. We have to work like we are 8 points behind. From now until Nov 7.

Make calls, donate, canvass. Do whatever you can, but do SOMETHING.

At 7:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm with KML, this is crunch time. Nothing fights harder then a cornerd rat, and Walsh is going to try to break Maffei's nuts. Expect a TOUGH 3rd debate.

At 8:02 PM, Anonymous AZ said...

Is there really significant numbers of people in the 25th (who intend to vote) and haven't yet made up their mind? Maffei just has to hold his ground and "surf the wave" - tidal wave that is. I feel it coming (and I'm generally a pessimist).

At 8:10 PM, Blogger Lisa M said...

RT Strategies has teamed up with Cook Report in the past, they are not partisan with one Dem and one Rep making up the R and the T in RT.

Plus they released the cross tabs and I checked them out, it looks very legit and like they didn't cheerlead or pose leading questions at all.

In the 20th district the poll included 1000+ people and the voter identity looked like it was an accurate representation of the voter enrollment in the district.

At 9:16 PM, Anonymous kml said...

Thanks Lisa. That helps somewhat, although I'd like to see another independent poll for back up.

Nevertheless, this is exciting.

At 11:33 AM, Blogger pjs said...

Yeah, this is an independent poll from a legit outfit. There's some speculation that it's a robo-poll, so I don't know whether that favors one side or the other. At the very least, this should encourage people to donate time and money to the Maffei campaign. It's a good time to jump on the bandwagon.

It would also be interesting to see how this affects the Whiney Walsh debate negotiations for Monday night. Who needs another debate more at this point? It might give Maffei the leverage to say, "hey, Walsh doesn't believe in democracy and free speech, he's afraid to go out in public, has been consistently terrified of his constituents (note how many town hall style meetings he's had in the past 18 years), and has shown his ignorance about this community in his insistence that the Upstate economy is just fine and dandy. I'm not afraid of an open and honest debate, and I insist that we have one, as the Congressman agreed to back in August."

Hell, if Walsh doesn't want to show, set up an empty chair for him, and let Dan take questions from the audience all by himself.

At 2:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think RT's methodology is suspect; I don't think NY-25 is significantly bluer than the rest of the country, and Bush's approval rating in general is around 40, so 29 looks suspicious. Also, RT had Gillibrand leading by 13 in NY-20, but Siena College shows her losing by 14. That's a difference of 27 points.


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