Thursday, July 13, 2006

Poll Numbers Scared Walsh?

So I've found an interesting happening of events in Jim Walsh's spending report.

On May 17th, Jim Walsh paid Jeff Stonecash to conduct a poll for him. Pollsters seldom start a political project without payment up front because of a danger of campaigns not paying if they dislike the results. Now I don't know exactly how Stonecash makes the calls, but I highly doubt he has or uses a professional phone bank, so I suspect it takes him at least a week, probably longer to do a poll from start to finish. It would be safe to assume, the poll wasn't finished until May 25th. Just a few days later on June 1st, Walsh shells out over $130K to Cookfair Media for ads and media time.

So was this all just a coincidence or did Walsh receive some poll numbers that startled him into running the ads?


At 4:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

your time conjecture makes little sense, but even without it, one can say that there is no way Walsh spends 100k+ on ads in June if he hadn't had some indication it was to his benefit. Walsh has polls running year round (another Republican who "doesn't follow polls" I am sure) and he had to know that against a serious challenger, he needs to start early.

At 4:07 PM, Blogger The Watcher said...

What doesn't make sense about Jim Walsh going on the air in June just days after he got poll results resulting from him being scared?

At 10:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are funny with your blogs. This reminds me of a guy writing love letters to himself to make his friends think he has some chick that's interested. Thanks for the laugh. Keep them coming.

At 11:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

it isn't that it doesn't make sense. It is that it does not matter. He gets polls all the time, he went early with ads. Did he do this against Howie? Of course not. Point is the answer is YES, Walsh saw something he didn't like.

At 9:36 AM, Blogger The Watcher said...

anonymous @ 10:44,

"You are funny with your blogs." Is that something like rumors on the internets? Anyway, tell Tony I used to love the pancakes at Perkins.

anonymous @ 11:02,

Walsh has only polled 5 times since 2001. But either way, you agree with my point, so what's yours?

At 10:02 AM, Blogger Orangeman said...

You're both right. Walsh has surely been tracking the race - officially throgh his own polling or unofficially through information generated by other polling and put out on the grapevine. Stonecash probably finished the poll faster than you suspected, Watcher, and he was probably paid upon presentation of the results. He was at little risk of getting stiffed by a sitting Congressman, you know?

What is interesting - and validates your point - is that you don't just produce TV spots out of thin air. He had to plan out a shoot, schedule it for a time he was in NY, then go to post-production. That takes a little time - almost the exact amount of time between the Stonecash poll and when he went on the air.

Of course Walsh is worried. He should be.


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