Thursday, June 01, 2006

Very Interesting Article

Here's a very interesting article from noted political analyst Larry Sabato:

With five months to go before November, can every piece of this analysis be transformed? It's certainly possible, but it's also not very likely. The problems bedeviling Bush and the GOP may get a bit better or a little worse, but they appear to be intrinsic to this election year. Therefore, the only real question is how many seats the Democrats will gain in the Congress and the statehouses, not if they will gain.

Take the case of the U.S. House of Representatives. It is difficult to see the Democrats picking up fewer than five seats net--a third of the fifteen seats the party needs for a House takeover. Most election rating sites, including the Crystal Ball, have been gradually upgrading their estimates of likely Democratic gains, with the number now ranging from seven to twelve seats. That is approaching the magic level of addition required for a House majority. At the same time, early projections are not reality and plenty of events could alter the landscape just enough to preserve Republican control of the House.

Look again at our table of post-World War II historical precedents. There is cold comfort there for the GOP, and at least preliminary cheer for Democrats. The election paragraph for 2006 is not yet written, but it will be a surprise if its content does not please Democrats more than Republicans. But will the results make much difference for governance by giving real power to the Democrats in at least one house of Congress? That is the key question that can only be an swered by the events to come, the campaigns yet to be run, and the final decisions of the voters--the ones who, far more than scholars, actually write the midterm election passage in the book of American history.


It's quite long, but it really is a must read.

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