Monday, May 22, 2006

More Good News

From NBC's First Read:

The analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report have adjusted their House race ratings to reflect what they see as increasing odds of a shift in control of that chamber in November, noting that it's hard to see how the standing of either President Bush or Congress improves much before election day. "The turn-out dynamic for the mid-terms looks increasingly problematic for House Republicans, especially those who sit in marginal districts," writes House analyst Amy Walter. "Increasingly, we are hearing about and/or seeing polling in these districts that confirms the drag this environment is having on individual Republican candidates... We are also seeing mediocre, even weak candidates and campaigns on the Democratic side, performing way above levels that one might expect."

Back in 1994, the Report began noting a similar increase in the pool of competitive races starting in April, with a corresponding decrease in the number of vulnerable seats held by the then-minority GOP. The Report currently lists 11 GOP-held seats in their toss-up category and "another 25 seats that currently lean Republican, but could end up in the toss-up column with a more substantive wave," Walter writes. By comparison, they rank only one Democrat-held seat as a toss-up, and nine as leaning Democratic.


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