Saturday, April 22, 2006

Uninformed

The Sub-Standard used it's Saturday Quiz to shill for Jimbo again:

3. Two Democratic challengers to Rep. James Walsh reported raising a combined $320,000. That's not bad, until you consider:

a) Out of 434 congressional races in 2004, challengers defeated incumbents in only five districts, and only after spending an average of $1.6 million.

b) In 14 of the last 15 congressional elections, the percentage of
incumbents who were re-elected was at least 90 percent.

c) A stronger magnet for national Democratic money may be the 24th District, the open seat being vacated by Sherwood Boehlert.

d) Walsh has $500,000 on hand and is just gearing up for his customary industry PAC windfall.



But let's take a real look at the facts.

A) Of those five challengers who won, they only had an average of $200,211 Cash on Hand at this point in the race. And of those 5, Dan Maffei has more Cash on Hand than 3 of the them and Paloma Capanna has more Cash on Hand than 1 of them.

B) In 1994 90% of incumbents were reelected too. Despite that Republicans picked up 54 seats and knocked off 34 incumbent Democrats. 5 Democratic incumbents were knocked off in just Washington including the Speaker of the House. Republicans could lose 21 seats and still have 90% of their incumbents reelected.

C) At the same time, National Republican money will not be there to help Jimbo if he's in trouble. The NRCC spent $500,000 to bail him out in 1996, they will have far too many fires to put out before they worry about Jimbo.

D) Jimbo has already benefited from the PAC windfall raising 52% of his total from PACs and he only has $500,000 on hand.

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