Wednesday, April 05, 2006

A Tidal Wave Goodbye

USA Today had this to say today:

"We know that there's a hurricane coming, and it's going to hit the Republicans in November," says Charlie Cook of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "We're just trying to figure out how big this thing is."

[...]

A Democratic takeover of the Senate seems distant, but Cook and others now figure it's possible (though not yet likely) that Democrats will gain the 15 seats they need to seize control of the House of Representatives.

Three of the five key ingredients of the 1994 turnaround are in place, including broad public dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, dismal approval ratings for the president and the taint of scandal in Congress.

[...]

In a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll last month, 29% of those surveyed said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the nation; 68% were dissatisfied. At this point in 1994, 35% were satisfied.

[...]

"The big Achilles heel for the Republicans are the president's approval rating and the war in Iraq," says Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a former chairman of the Republicans' congressional campaign committee. "It shapes up in the atmospherics to be a pretty good year to be a Democrat."

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