Holy Polling Data Batman
Democracy Corps released this beastly document, compiling a whole boatload of recent polling data. I'm just going to give you one key finding, and if you have a few weeks you can read through the rest:
- In contests where a Democratic incumbent is running for re-election (199 House seats in this database), the Democratic candidates enjoy a 26-point advantage and claim a strong majority of the votes (57 to 31 percent)
- In open seats with no incumbent running in this cycle (20 House seats), the Democratic advantage is even higher -- a remarkable 63 to 28 percent
- Most importantly, in races where a Republican incumbent is running for re-election (217 House seats), the Republican candidate leads by just 4 points (42 to 46 percent) and fails to claim majority support -- a sharp contrast from the strong position of Democratic incumbents.