Saturday, April 22, 2006

Good House News

The Hotline does a poll of both Democratic and Republican insiders periodically. They asked a question, on a scale 0 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) how likely is it that the Democrats will win control of the House. In February the average score among Democratic insiders was 5.0, this month is up to 5.6. In February the average score among Republican insiders was just 3.5 but this month it jumped up to 4.8. In February just 40% of Republicans said the Democrats had at least a moderate chance of winning the House, now 72% do.

Political Analyst Stu Rothenberg also has good news for Democrats:

We believe that the House definitely is “in play,” and the key to whether Republicans can maintain control is whether they can discredit individual Democratic challengers who otherwise would be positioned to win. We are increasing our estimate of likely Democratic gains from 5-8 seats to 7-10 seats (they need to net 15 seats for control), with a bias toward even greater Democratic gains.

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